Risk of Progression - AIS

[mamamax]

Attached table defines the risk of progression in AIS (data provided by SRS).

So this appears to be what we know from patients who have been tracked. I suspect many more are un-tracked than tracked and ponder that the data compiled may not be representative of an entire world wide patient population .. but its a start.

Some information from this very informative Australian web site which is sponsored by the Spine Society of Australia (last two sentences, most compelling):

It is readily deduced from this table that curves are most likely to progress and require active treatment (bracing or surgery) the larger the curve is at presentation and the age at which medical advice is first sought. This is because curves progress most rapidly during the growth spurt – 11-13 years in girls and about 18 months later in boys. These are average figures and averages only appear on paper. Early breast development in girls is a reliable sign of the onset of the spurt. The commencement of periods (menarche) is not reliable in this regard and the average age for this event is 13-15 years, by which time the spurt is over. However, it is dangerous to apply rigid rules to biological events. Every girl and boy is different from all others.

http://www.scoliosis-australia.org/s...scoliosis.html

[MitoMom]

I would agree that MANY teens are NOT tracked. In Michigan, scoliosis screening happens with a public health nurse for middle school 7th graders. When a student shows signs of scoliosis by bending over, the county health department sends a letter to the parents advising them to seek further treatment with their own physician. That's it for follow up.

It's up to Mom and Dad, or in many cases at the school where I teach, Grandma to follow through. Given the state of Michigan's economy, many of my students are uninsured, so follow up is NOT going to happen since it comes down to paying for the appointment or putting food on the table.

It will be curious to observe whether we get a higher percentage of back pains, etc. as these untreated students age.