In another thread I wrote:
I think I know what I was missing. I think the 1* - 2* degree a year progression rate is the average rate for folks over 50* AFTER maturity.
I wonder what is know of the average progression rate for folks in the conservative treatment window (~25* - ~45*) after maturity. Whatever it is, it is certain to have a huge variability.
It would be nice for someone to estimate the percentage of AIS cases that are associated with connective tissue disorders given at least some of these cases group away from the average AIS case. It would also be good to scrupulously try to not lump these two groups in these various research articles because each confounds the other if they truly represent distinct groups in terms of average progression rate. This is reason # 5,908,677 why this literature is dicey.
I am trying to understand the state of the art w.r.t. average progression rate. As I first understood our surgeon, he seemed to be saying if my daughter could stay below 50* at maturity, she would avoid fusion for life. I thought he meant that people below 50* at maturity simply don't progress ever. What I have come to learn from when I asked him to clarify is that folks still progress but usually at such a slow rate that they are not likely to need fusion in a normal lifespan.
But I don't think that is accurate after reading the testimonials. What I think we hear is 1* - 2* per year for the average (WIDE variation) sub surgical case that is in the conservative treatment window (~25* - 50*) at maturity. But let's say a kid is at 35* at 15 y.o. and progresses 1* a year. That means they are surgical at age 30 on average. If they are 25* at 15 years old then they are surgical at 40 years old. And assuming a slower progression, it seems that many folks will be surgical by their golden years.
As far as I can tell, all but the smallest curves that are below the conservative treatment range will reach surgical range well within a normal lifespan. And the 10 to 1 adult to adolescent fusion rate is consistent with that. What am I missing?
But I don't think that is accurate after reading the testimonials. What I think we hear is 1* - 2* per year for the average (WIDE variation) sub surgical case that is in the conservative treatment window (~25* - 50*) at maturity. But let's say a kid is at 35* at 15 y.o. and progresses 1* a year. That means they are surgical at age 30 on average. If they are 25* at 15 years old then they are surgical at 40 years old. And assuming a slower progression, it seems that many folks will be surgical by their golden years.
As far as I can tell, all but the smallest curves that are below the conservative treatment range will reach surgical range well within a normal lifespan. And the 10 to 1 adult to adolescent fusion rate is consistent with that. What am I missing?
I wonder what is know of the average progression rate for folks in the conservative treatment window (~25* - ~45*) after maturity. Whatever it is, it is certain to have a huge variability.
It would be nice for someone to estimate the percentage of AIS cases that are associated with connective tissue disorders given at least some of these cases group away from the average AIS case. It would also be good to scrupulously try to not lump these two groups in these various research articles because each confounds the other if they truly represent distinct groups in terms of average progression rate. This is reason # 5,908,677 why this literature is dicey.
Comment