Bracing for the inevitable!!!

[concerned dad]

And apparently is to be used during the growth spurt as the text says

The estimation of the prognostic risk to be used during pubertal growth spurt (modified from Lonstein and Carlson [33]). The numbers in the figure indicate the number of cases that each data point is based on. Note the small number of cases on which the upper margins of the graph are based. Lonstein and Carlson's progression estimation formula is based on curves between 20 and 29 degrees

Why age would factor into it (or Risser for that matter) I dont know. Risser is 0 during (at least most of) the pubertal growth spurt. I mean, if you are Risser 4, you're not in the pubertal growth spurt. Nor are you in the 'spurt" if you are 18.

Edit - I posted this simultaneously with Laura's post above. I know it posted. I saw it. But when I went back to see Lauras post it was gone. I used IE to go <back> and got to this point to repost. Interesting aspect of VBulletin

[Pooka1]

GardenJen was missing a paranthesis and substituted the wrong term (it should be progression factor)

I KNEW IT! There had to be something wrong with that formula.

from this website

the correct formula is:

Progression Factor = (Cobb angle - (3 X Risser score)) / Chronological age

you need to use your progression factor with the graph provided on the link.

My daughter has a progression factor of 2.71.
Using the graph in the link suggests 100% risk of progression #$((*# (Expletive Deleted)

Okay using the correct formula, my kid has a progression factor of:

PF = ((38-(3*2.5))/14.5 = ~2.2

So she has ~95% chance of progression. Hmmmm. I guess I'm not surprised.

[leahdragonfly]

progression factor 4.5

Wow, my daughter's progression rsik factor is (way) off the chart at 4.5--

Maybe that's why our local (non-Shriner's) pedi/ortho told me it doesn't matter if we brace her or not, because she WILL progress and need surgery.

Thank goodness for VBS and other alternatives at Shriner's Philly--they represent our best chance to avoid a fusion for our daughter.

[mbellcamp]

You all deserve a Med star

Thank you all for your replies with concern and advice. It means a lot. So much more to consider and new info to research. Math calcs, yeah.

Thank you Stephanie for your words of wisdom. I was trying to choose my words carefully and interpret the several different versions we got from a few doctors and the internet describing the initial phase kids go thru with the brace. Our intentions, as well as the others I am sure; is to give as much encouragement as possible. We will definitely have her sign up on the kid forum.

The ER doc must not have noticed anything, because she didn't say anything; but then again, no one suspected anything at that time and we were thinking it was more lung related. No harm no foul, I guess since we discovered it on our own less than 2 weeks later.

Her pain is really minimal and just occasional. Sometimes the backpack aggravates it or just sitting wrong. So we are hoping, if there will be surgery it will be because of the progression and not early, because of any pain related difficulties.

Interesting about the Risser details. We will have to look into that and ask them more on her stats.

Just a random pick out of our HealthNet provider list we ended up seeing Dr. A. Aminian for the initial consultant. After the visit we found out he is Head of Pediatric Ortho Surgery at CHOC (Childrens Hospital of Orange) so we think we luck out there. We just heard of Dr. Picetti on Tues, who is associated with Sutter Hosp in Nor Cal, so we can keep that info in the back of mind as a second option. From looking at it, I'm not sure our daughter would fit their criteria for being qualified for that type of surgery.

Good to know about the skeleton maturity rate. Something we can compare.

Our brace fitting app't is Monday so after a little (a lot) researching this weekend we should be ready. Just the info you all have given now and before on your other posts in this forum have helped immensely. Knowledge is powerful; but of course, as the old saying goes; ignorance is bliss. No wonder our grand ancestors were please if they were just going to see the bright light!!

You all are wonderful. This reply is a little disjointed as I was trying to answer everyone's individual concerns and questions. Thank you all again.

Matt and Trish, parents of Cortneanne.

Knowing that we are in God's hands.

[Pooka1]

Thank goodness for VBS and other alternatives at Shriner's Philly--they represent our best chance to avoid a fusion for our daughter.

It certainly seems that way. It definitely might pan out. I would try VBS if I had a JIS kid.