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Thread: Autism researchers shifting away from genes - Scoliosis next?

  1. #46
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    So let's assume only the people with the (rare?) genetic predisposition get the illness/syndrome when challenged with the (very common) pathogen.

    I suggest that situation is best described as mixed cause or known to be complex.

    NOT an environmental cause.

    NOT a genetic cause.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

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    "We are all African."

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dingo View Post
    Imagine how confused doctors would have been if Polio symptoms followed infection by months or even years. Researchers might have searched for Polio genes to this day. Odds are good they would have found quite a few by now.
    AIDs often follows infection by ten or more years and researchers still figured out it was HIV and not genes. How do you explain that?
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  3. #48
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    Aids

    pooka1

    AIDs often follows infection by ten or more years and researchers still figured out it was HIV and not genes. How do you explain that?

    I don't know a lot about AIDS research but perhaps it didn't look random. It hit certain groups particularly hard, it was fatal and it was brand new.

    If AIDS had existed for thousands of years and hit every group in equal numbers it might not have looked like an infection.

    Society might have grown to accept that 1 person in 250 gradually loses his/her immune system and dies a decade later. Genes certainly play a role in AIDS. If I remember correctly some people are genetically immune to it.
    Last edited by Dingo; 04-30-2009 at 09:22 PM.

  4. #49
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    Dingo.

    I am still utterly amazed at your leaps in logic.

  5. #50
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    dogmatic

    PNUTTRO

    I don't mean this as a slight but from my perspective you've already made up your mind on Scoliosis. Maybe you are right to stick with a genetic explanation, time will tell.

    However scientists don't know what triggers Scoliosis and there is credible data that you posted that suggests that the environment could be the most important factor. There is no obvious reason to reject an infectious mechanism because we know Scoliosis is triggered by infections in both humans and animals.

    To me it's very telling that after perhaps billions of dollars of research Autism scientists are shifting away from a genetic model and towards an environmental trigger / genetic susceptability model. The same process has already occured in Schizophrenia research.
    Last edited by Dingo; 05-01-2009 at 12:22 PM.

  6. #51
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    Dingo,

    GIVEN:

    The experts in this field are publishing results that a mostly false

    AND:

    We have one person in an allied field among a village of lay folks with near zip or in fact zip training to figure out what is going on

    THEN:

    We have a spectacle.

    I don't think you appreciate the magnitude of the falseness of the results you cite or the myriad of things these researchers are missing and especially the UNIVERSE of things you aren't considering in your interpretations.

    Pnuttro, with her background in an allied research field, has some sense of what we and the researchers are missing. I don't.

    It is impossible to overstate the ridiculosity (sic) of the situation we find ourselves in with this and other threads.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  7. #52
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    last post

    Pooka1

    I'm not even sure what you are getting at.

    Are you saying that we can't know about Scoliosis or posess an educated opinion about Scoliosis?

  8. #53
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    I'm saying if a majority of published results from the EXPERTS are false, how can you or I hope to suss out what is going on with an extremely complex medical situation?
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  9. #54
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    most results are false

    most results are false

    Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

    John P. A. Ioannidis

    John P. A. Ioannidis is in the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, Ioannina, Greece, and Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies, Department of Medicine, Tufts-New England Medical Center, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America. E-mail: jioannid@cc.uoi.gr

    Abstract

    Summary

    There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  10. #55
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    research is false

    Pooka1

    If you believe that most research is false what are you doing in the research forum? You should be watching TV or reading a book or something.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dingo View Post
    Pooka1

    If you believe that most research is false what are you doing in the research forum? You should be watching TV or reading a book or something.
    I'm here for the spectacle... with my popcorn at the ready.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  12. #57
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    I had to laugh when I saw this tonight! Looks like Dingo is onto something.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20090616...iongenefinding

  13. #58
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    Good find Ballet Mom!

    Ballet Mom

    Study Refutes Depression Gene Finding

    A new analysis upends a previous, highly acclaimed study that had concluded that a particular gene variation was associated with an increased risk of major depression.
    It's the same story over and over and Scoliosis won't be any different. If scoliosis was a "genetic disease" it would be very obvious like Sickle Cell, Muscular Dystrophy or a hundred others.

    Someday scientists may discover genes that correlate with Scoliosis but don't actually cause the disease. Except in the rarest of cases that's as close to a genetic disease as Scoliosis will ever be.

    Something in the environment is causing pinpoint damage to children's nervous systems. This environmental trigger has been around for thousands of years or more. In my mind that narrows it down to a common, childhood infection. Time will tell.
    Last edited by Dingo; 06-17-2009 at 01:06 AM.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    I had to laugh when I saw this tonight! Looks like Dingo is onto something.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20090616...iongenefinding
    Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

    John P. A. Ioannidis

    John P. A. Ioannidis is in the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, Ioannina, Greece, and Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies, Department of Medicine, Tufts-New England Medical Center, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America. E-mail: jioannid@cc.uoi.gr

    Abstract

    Summary

    There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  15. #60
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    The abstract failed to mention the immense pressure to publish data in order to keep one's job.

    p

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