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Thread: How folkscience can kill innocent babies

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    My point was basically that the large number of illegal immigrants in California who many have not received health care in the past and many do not have vaccinations is probably going to keep befuddling our public health system in many ways....whooping cough only one of the things. I do notice that the outbreak is confined to California.
    According to the reports I read, the immigrants (up to teenagers) actually had a *higher* level of vaccination then the general population.

    The issue is that adults, across the board, don't tend to have immunity to whooping cough and, because they don't get vaccinated every 5 to 10 years, they're spreading it everywhere.

    All adults spread it. The issue for Latino infants is that they're exposed to so many adults that they're chance of being exposed is way up.

    So, anyway, "excessive socializing" is apparently the public health issue. I'm fascinated to see how they're going to deal with that. I can almost hear the public service messages now. "Being alone - it's the right thing to do!"

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by hdugger View Post
    According to the reports I read, the immigrants (up to teenagers) actually had a *higher* level of vaccination then the general population.
    Did the report you read make a distinction between legal or illegal? I have heard that legal Latinos have a high rate of vaccination but I find it hard to believe that holds true for those who have come across the border illegally. It's hard to believe that Mexico and points south have great vaccination programs.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    Did the report you read make a distinction between legal or illegal? I have heard that legal Latinos have a high rate of vaccination but I find it hard to believe that holds true for those who have come across the border illegally. It's hard to believe that Mexico and points south have great vaccination programs.
    Apparently they do have a good program, and Mexico is avoiding the outbreaks we're seeing here.

    Here's the FAQ from the health department - http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lano...-epidemic.html

    Actually, if Mexico is avoiding the epidemic, then it sounds like the vector is:

    White american adults infect Latino immigrant adults who (in large numbers) infect the infants

    Proving again that white folk are the source of all problems

  4. #64
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    [QUOTE=Ballet Mom;108751]I'm sure the number is very hard to pin down, it's not like they actually want to be counted. Plus the number has been dropping due to the recession.
    [\quote]

    Didn't stop a major 'news' network from publishing it as fact.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    Of course, I'm sure we can all just sweep it under the rug and blame it on stupid demon-haunted people of faith who are the evil anti-vaxers and everyone will be happy.
    My point was basically that the large number of illegal immigrants in California who many have not received health care in the past and many do not have vaccinations is probably going to keep befuddling our public health system in many ways....whooping cough only one of the things. I do notice that the outbreak is confined to California.

    See here... this demonstrates my initial point. You're clearly upset that people on here have been critical of people of faith. Yet you're ready to blame 'them', the illegal immigrants, on befuddling health care and spreading disease.

    And by "confined to California", you also mean Idaho, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin, as well as upstate New York. These states all saw an increase in pertussis outbreaks in the last year.

    The actual reason isn't immigration or religious reasons.

    Using a complex research model, the investigators examined school data on the disease of primary interest to them—pertussis. What they found was that states where personal belief exemptions exist and are easily obtained had higher exemption rates and greater incidence of pertussis than those with religious exemptions only. Pertussis incidence in states allowing personal belief exemptions was more than twice as high as in states that allowed only religious exemptions. States with easy procedures for granting personal belief exemptions had a 90 percent higher incidence of pertussis.

    http://tiny.cc/5ps7cx8oxf
    It's mostly linked to how easy it is to fill out an exemption form. And it boils down to rich white families who send kids to private or charter schools or who home school. This doesn't mean EVERYONE who fits this category is bad or anything. It's just a correlation.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by hdugger View Post
    Apparently they do have a good program, and Mexico is avoiding the outbreaks we're seeing here.

    Here's the FAQ from the health department - http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lano...-epidemic.html

    Actually, if Mexico is avoiding the epidemic, then it sounds like the vector is:

    White american adults infect Latino immigrant adults who (in large numbers) infect the infants

    Proving again that white folk are the source of all problems

    Multiple families living in a single household is very common.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by skevimc View Post
    See here... this demonstrates my initial point. You're clearly upset that people on here have been critical of people of faith. Yet you're ready to blame 'them', the illegal immigrants, on befuddling health care and spreading disease.
    /
    /
    It's mostly linked to how easy it is to fill out an exemption form. And it boils down to rich white families who send kids to private or charter schools or who home school. This doesn't mean EVERYONE who fits this category is bad or anything. It's just a correlation.
    Actually, I was trying to come up with logical reasons for the deaths, without having health statistic data in front of me, instead of jumping to the conclusion that it had to be stupid religious whackos at fault. If you lived here, you'd realize that it's a pretty obvious thing that people will think of instead of immediately calling me prejudiced. I notice everyone stays mute when Christians are being attacked non-stop. Just depends on whose ox is being gored.

    And here is the REAL REASON, for the outbreak and deaths. SCIENCE.Thirteen medical doctors published a study in Lancet, a very impressive medical journal recommending avoiding the MMR due to a possible correlation with autism and irritable bowel syndrome.

    Dr. Andrew Wakefield, the author of research on autism, visited Orange County this summer. His insinuation, in 1998, that autism is connected to the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine caused frightened parents around the world to withhold the shot from their children.

    In California, parents can opt out of vaccines by signing a waiver called the PBE – personal belief exemption. This can be done for religious grounds, political beliefs or distrust of vaccines or the medical system in general, and it can cover one vaccination or all of them.

    Recently, the Watchdog Institute, a nonprofit journalism center at San Diego State University, reported that the number of PBEs granted for kindergartners at public and private schools has skyrocketed. In the fall of 1990, there were 2,719 such waivers granted at schools with at least 10 kindergartners; in the fall of 2009, there were 10,280.

    The numbers from the state Department of Health database show that Orange County's PBE rate is 2.69percent, exceeding the state rate of 2.03 percent. Among county public schools, the rate was 2.35percent; for private schools, it was 5.01 percent.

    Twenty-four Orange County public schools had PBE rates of at least 10 percent, including eight in the Capistrano Unified School District. Here are the top five:

    Orange County Charter School, Costa Mesa, 56 percent (46 exempted out of 82 kindergartners enrolled).

    http://www.ocregister.com/news/perce...ty-school.html

    Journey School, Aliso Viejo, 38 percent (20 of 53).

    Culverdale Elementary, Irvine, 37 percent (36 of 97).

    Trabuco Elementary, Trabuco Canyon, 33 percent (4 of 12).

    Del Obispo Elementary, San Juan Capistrano, 27percent (12 of 44).

    Twenty-eight Orange County private schools had PBE rates of at least 10 percent. The top five:

    Calvary Chapel Private School, Santa Ana, 70 percent (7 of 10).

    Broderick Montessori, Dana Point, 59 percent (13 of 22).

    Hope Christian Academy, Garden Grove, 53 percent (9 of 17).

    Heart Christian Preparatory, San Juan Capistrano, 39 percent (7 of 18).

    Waldorf School of Orange County, Costa Mesa, 39 percent (28 of 72).

    The theory of “herd immunity” (or “community immunity”) states that a certain level of the population has to be inoculated to ensure that everyone is protected, including those who aren't vaccinated. That inflection point varies depending on the disease, but it's between 80 percent and 94 percent. Because no vaccine is 100 percent effective, justifications for exempting children can be flawed.

    Without that level of community immunity, “the chances are going to go up that you're going to have a disease that normally wouldn't be a threat,” said Dr. Nancy Bowen, the county's chief medical officer.

    Pertussis, which nearly was wiped out in California in the '70s but has made a comeback with the worst outbreak in the state in 50 years, presents special problems.

    Immunity from vaccination wears off over time. (A bill in the Legislature would require boosters for incoming seventh-graders, while still preserving the opt-out waivers.) Also, herd immunity doesn't appear to work as well with pertussis as with other diseases.

    Bowen said the county is prepared to act quickly if a pertussis outbreak hits a school this fall. Teachers should watch for symptoms, and infected children should be kept home and be taken to a doctor right away. Other children who may have been in contact with infected kids can be treated with prophylactic antibiotics to provide extra protection.

    “But that's taking a lot of chances,” Bowen said. “A much more surefire method would be to have more children vaccinated.”
    http://www.ocregister.com/news/perce...ty-school.html
    Last edited by Ballet Mom; 09-23-2010 at 07:49 PM.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    Actually, I was trying to come up with logical reasons for the deaths, without having health statistic data in front of me, instead of jumping to the conclusion that it had to be stupid religious whackos at fault. If you lived here, you'd realize that it's a pretty obvious thing that people will think of instead of immediately calling me prejudiced. I notice everyone stays mute when Christians are being attacked non-stop. Just depends on whose ox is being gored.
    Actually, I thought both Kevin and I stepped in to defend you on the faith point.

    I thought the whole discussion was kind of interesting (from a meta viewpoint) in the way that everyone interpreted the same information through their own personal filter, right down to Pooka calling out fake science and me bemoaning inequity of healthcare.

    Turns out we were all wrong.

    We might take a lesson away from that in our other discussions. Or, you know, maybe not

  8. #68
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    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pooka1 View Post
    That bunny is obviously an evil demon-haunted bunny praying.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    That bunny is obviously an evil demon-haunted bunny praying.
    One of my guinea pigs thinks she is a Jain just because she is nakee all the time.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by hdugger View Post
    Actually, I thought both Kevin and I stepped in to defend you on the faith point.
    I appreciate any support. I especially thank you for defending the term faith from its banishment.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    Actually, I was trying to come up with logical reasons for the deaths, without having health statistic data in front of me, instead of jumping to the conclusion that it had to be stupid religious whackos at fault.
    So instead of jumping to conclusion about religious wackos you jump to conclusions about illegal immigrants.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    If you lived here, you'd realize that it's a pretty obvious thing that people will think of instead of immediately calling me prejudiced.
    I didn't immediately call you prejudiced. I said:

    You get upset when people make blanket statements about f@ith (as do I) because it doesn't represent the entire population. It is based purely on preconceived notions aka. prejudices.
    We're all prejudiced about something or someone in varying levels. Whether or not we allow those prejudices to affect our view of an entire demographic is what I took issue with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    I notice everyone stays mute when Christians are being attacked non-stop. Just depends on whose ox is being gored.
    I don't generally comment on matters of faith. Immigration is a hot button with me.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ballet Mom View Post
    And here is the REAL REASON, for the outbreak and deaths. SCIENCE.Thirteen medical doctors published a study in Lancet, a very impressive medical journal recommending avoiding the MMR due to a possible correlation with autism and irritable bowel syndrome.
    You know. You're partially correct. The problem is that people took that article and then made assumptions about ALL vaccines. A blanket statement, if you will.

    Quote Originally Posted by hdugger View Post
    Actually, I thought both Kevin and I stepped in to defend you on the faith point.

    ...

    Turns out we were all wrong.

    We might take a lesson away from that in our other discussions. Or, you know, maybe not
    Nice.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by skevimc View Post
    You know. You're partially correct. The problem is that people took that article and then made assumptions about ALL vaccines. A blanket statement, if you will.
    That's not the only problem...

    Published research findings are sometimes refuted by subsequent evidence, says Ioannidis, with ensuing confusion and disappointment.

    http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/...l.pmed.0020124

    Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

    John P. A. Ioannidis

    Abstract

    There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
    Of course none of that undermines IN THE LEAST that science is still the only way of knowing anything real. If science doesn't yet know the answer then no field does FULL STOP. It is truly the only game in town, imperfect though it may be.

    There are many papers that should not have been published, some where the reason is obvious. And there is a failure of review. This is a surprise to nobody who is familiar with the field. Scientists know all this but lay, untrained parents, not so much. Hence the hysterics.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  14. #74
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    Folkscience

    http://www.michaelshermer.com/2006/08/folk-science/

    "Why our intuitions about how the world works are often wrong" by Michel Shermer

    Here is an excerpt...

    In this latter case, we have a recent scientific analysis of this ancient folk science supposition. The April issue of the American Heart Journal published a comprehensive study directed by Harvard Medical School cardiologist Herbert Benson on the effects of intercessory prayer on the health and recovery of patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery. The 1,802 patients were divided into three groups, two of which were prayed for by members of three religious congregations. Prayers began the night before the surgery and continued daily for two weeks after. Half the prayer recipients were told that they were being prayed for, whereas the other half were told that they might or might not receive prayers. Results showed no statistically significant differences between any of the groups. Case closed.

    Of course, people will continue praying for their ailing loved ones, and by chance some of them will recover, and our folk science brains will find meaning in these random patterns. But for us to discriminate true causal inferences from false, real science trumps folk science.
    The research section of this scoliosis forum is stocked stem to stern with folkscience.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

  15. #75
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    Science and Pseudoscience - how to tell the difference

    http://astro.physics.sc.edu/pseudoscience.html

    An example of an organized pseudoscience is chiro.

    Also this excerpt...

    The world is not a dichotomy between science and pseudoscience. There is a third division, which we will call non-science. Any hypothesis that makes statements, which, in principle, cannot be disproved, would be non-scientific. A statement being scientific or non-scientific may have no bearing on its correctness. Many religious ideas fall into the non-science category. For example, the belief in the existence of the universe by a willful act of a creator is, in and of itself, a non-science statement. On the other hand, the belief that a particular religious story which explains the existence of fossils is subject to verification. As such, it may be treated as a science or a pseudoscience.
    Last edited by Pooka1; 09-24-2010 at 09:11 AM.
    Sharon, mother of identical twin girls with scoliosis

    No island of sanity.

    Question: What do you call alternative medicine that works?
    Answer: Medicine


    "We are all African."

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